Tablet shipment forecast lowered through 2017, says DisplaySearch
Press release; Alex Wolfgram, DIGITIMES [Thursday 24 October 2013]
The forecast for global tablet shipments has been lowered as short-term build plans are being reduced. According to DisplaySearch, tablet shipments are still expected to be up 30% on year, but projections between 2013-2017 are being scaled back by roughly 9% every year. The main factor in the forecast reduction is white-box tablet production in China, which is being pulled back following overly aggressive build plans that out-paced demand.
Despite the current situation in China, much of the future growth for tablet shipments will come from the China and Asia Pacific regions. These regions will make up nearly 50% of the worldwide tablet segment by 2015, increasing to nearly 60% by 2017. In comparison, North America and EMEA, which combined will make up 50% of the market in 2013, will fall to 36% in 2017.
Overall global tablet shipments are expected to reach more than 255 million units in 2013, capturing nearly 60% of the mobile PC market. The once-dominant standard notebook segment is forecast to fall to 160 million units, making up just 36% of the mobile PC market. Shipments of ultra-slim PCs are expected to reach 19 million units, or 4% of mobile PCs, said DisplaySearch.
By 2017, shipments of tablets are forecast to reach 534 million units, or 76% of the mobile PC market. Ultra-slim PC shipments are expected to increase slightly to 7% of the market, with 50 million units shipped. Meanwhile, standard notebook PC shipments are expected to fall to less than 112 million units, which is just 16% of the mobile PC market.
"Tablets are gaining share at the expense of standard notebooks in key emerging regions where PC penetration rates are low," said Richard Shim, senior analyst with DisplaySearch. "Parts of China and Asia Pacific, such as Indonesia and Thailand, are the new battlegrounds for PC shipment growth, and low-cost tablets are compelling alternatives to traditional standard notebooks in those regions."
Declining average selling prices will drive shipment growth of tablets in the China and Asia Pacific regions. ASPs in China and Asia Pacific will fall from US$285 in 2013 to less than US$240 in 2017 with nearly 50% of tablets selling for less than US$100. Major vendors will increasingly offer low-price tablets to better compete against white-box tablet vendors in the entry-level segments that are currently driving tablet adoption worldwide. In the standard notebook segment, declining demand and shipments for standard notebooks has major vendors focusing on profits and higher ASPs. ASPs for standard notebooks are expected to reach US$699 in 2013, rising to US$766 by 2017, noted DisplaySearch.
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